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Holiday Travel: The Latest Inflation, Trends, Surveys

December 14, 2021 by Laurie Jo Miller Farr Leave a Comment

The New Normal Is Uncertainty

Without question, the hard-hit travel sector is contributing mightily to our inflation woes. This winter, industry experts are keeping a wary eye on road trips fueled by costly gas and room rates, two pricey items that are among the highest risers.

“Hotel rates were up nearly 3 percent from October and soared 25.5 percent from November 2020. The lodging sector was among the highest risers, which also included gasoline prices that were up 58.1 percent year-on-year, and rental cars at 37 percent.” — Skift

American Traveler Sentiment

Findings from surveys taken during the second week of December 2021

Destination Analysts:

While 76.0% of American travelers remain in a ready-to-travel state of mind, this is down from 82.0% on October 15 when this metric recovered from the Delta variant. In fact, well over half of American travelers say the recent news about the Omicron variant make them less interested in traveling right now.

High excitement levels about a potential getaway in the next month has declined 3 percentage points in the last two weeks to 65.7%. Similarly, those highly excited as they look out over their leisure travel in the next year has fallen 4.1 percentage points to 67.2%. Openness to travel inspiration is at 59.7%, falling from 64.0% November 26.”

Find more information here.

Longwoods International:

“Concerns about the spread of both the Delta and Omicron variants is setting off alarm bells for the travel industry,” said Amir Eylon, President and CEO of Longwoods International. “Some travelers are hesitant regarding trip planning as they wait for updated information on the state of the pandemic and the effectiveness of vaccines, boosters, and treatments for new strains like Omicron.”

27% or one quarter of American travelers report postponing some of their trips right now due to Omicron variant
A 5% spike in those American travelers reporting Covid would greatly impact their travels
Financial concerns have inched up 5% in two months
Those changing travel plans due to the pandemic is up 5% in two months
On the bright side, only 10% of American travelers say they are canceling trips
68% of holiday season travelers plan to visit friends and relatives, while 60% plan to go shopping
35% of American travelers have remote work plans within the next 12-24 months. In May, this figure was 29%

Find more information here.

MMGY Global Releases New Survey on Omicron Variant and Travel Decisions

December 7, 2021 by Laurie Jo Miller Farr Leave a Comment

The first research is in since Omicron surfaced. This survey was conducted December 3–5, 2021, by MMGY Travel Intelligence, MMGY Global’s research and insights division. For more traveler research related to COVID-19, visit mmgyintel.com.

Survey of U.S. Adults Shows Omicron Variant Is More Likely to Affect Travel Decisions of the Vaccinated Than the Unvaccinated

Americans are largely in favor of vaccination mandates from airlines and testing requirements for travelers entering the country

KANSAS CITY, MO (December 7, 2021) – MMGY Global’s latest survey of U.S. adults revealed that 45% of respondents who are familiar with the Omicron variant are less likely to travel in the next three months because of related concerns. Interestingly, unvaccinated travelers’ intentions appear to be far less impacted than those of the vaccinated. The survey found 39% of vaccinated adults familiar with Omicron say news of the variant has no impact on their likelihood to travel in the next three months, while the majority (71%) of those who are unvaccinated say this news does not impact their likelihood to travel.

As scientists learn more about how Omicron behaves, the next couple of weeks will be very important in determining how much of an impact this new variant is likely to have on travel plans. A significant percentage of Americans say it would have an effect on their likelihood to travel.

Forty-three percent say they would be significantly less likely to travel if scientists determine Omicron is more likely to result in hospitalizations.
Thirty-four percent say they would be significantly less likely to travel if scientists determine Omicron is more resistant to current vaccines.
Thirty-two percent say they would be significantly less likely to travel if scientists determine Omicron is more easily transmitted.

Clayton Reid, CEO of MMGY Global, shared his perspective on how to interpret the data. “As we have seen with the Delta variant, traveler mentality can be affected by a perpetuated media and social narrative, but that effect can be fleeting and somewhat unreliable. While we see an expected apprehension among travelers as they first learn of Omicron, we also expect this to be replaced quickly with a bullish sentiment toward 2022 travel.”

The national survey, which was conducted among nearly 900 U.S. adults, also examined consumer sentiment related to health and safety measures that could prevent the spread of Omicron cases, and coronavirus in general, throughout the United States.

Sixty-seven percent of Americans support President Biden’s decision to increase testing requirements for inbound international travelers to the United States.
Sixty-four percent of Americans believe airlines should require all passengers to be fully vaccinated in order to fly domestically, and 67% believe this requirement should be in place for international travelers.

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About MMGY Travel Intelligence

MMGY Travel Intelligence is MMGY Global’s industry research and insights division, offering proprietary data and research including MMGY Global’s Portrait of American Travelers® as well as DK Shifflet’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitor^SM, which is comprised of the largest continuous consumer travel database in the industry. The organization’s services are designed to power travel industry decision-makers through consumer insights, travel performance data, and audience modeling and segmentation. To learn more about the extensive collection of research, analytics and strategy services, visit mmgyintel.com or email us at research@mmgyglobal.com.

About MMGY Global

MMGY Global is the world’s leading integrated global marketing firm specializing in the travel, hospitality and entertainment industries. With eight operating brands across the world, the award-winning organization maintains a global communications practice in all marketing channels, serving many of the world’s premier travel and tourism brands. As a company dedicated to the travel industry, MMGY Global strives to create a connected, inclusive and peaceful world by promoting travel as a cultural bridge of understanding. For more information, visit www.mmgyglobal.com.

Elvis Tribute Artist and a Hot Dog King Cheer On International Tourism and Experts Chime In, Too

November 9, 2021 by Laurie Jo Miller Farr Leave a Comment

America Is Open for Business

It’s been 602 days. Who’s counting? Everybody.

In Las Vegas, Elvis tribute artist Travis Allen is back on the job. Bliss Wedding Chapel already has new bookings from 23 couples traveling from France, Germany, Brazil and the U.K. Two weeks ago, owner Brandon Reed says there were zero weddings on the books.

In New York City in front of the Metropolitan Museum of Art on Fifth Avenue, Don Rossi’s street cart is open for business. Before the pandemic, he sold up to 500 hot dogs per day, which fell as low as 10 hot dogs during the height of the pandemic. The self-proclaimed Hot Dog King welcomes back the international visitors that he calls his “lifeblood.” (Source: USA Today)

Fully vaccinated international visitors from 33 countries are required to show official proof and a recent negative viral test. The airlines are responsible for verification.

The top-booked destinations for overseas travelers in November are New York, Miami, Orlando, Los Angeles and San Francisco, in that order, per Travelport data, with Brits emerging as the “most eager to get back to U.S. cities.”

It’s a welcome sign of recovery for the U.S. travel industry, which has seen flight bookings to and within the country rise to 70% of pre-pandemic levels, Bloomberg reports.

Excitement for Nov. 8 has been building overseas, with airlines reporting sold-out flights on Monday.

In London, the moment saw rivalry put aside as two flights from Heathrow simultaneously took off from parallel runways at 8:30 a.m. British Airways and Virgin Atlantic A350s orchestrated a first-ever double historic departure for JFK International Airport.

Just in time for the holidays. Congestion is expected as the U.S. opens back up. “It’s going to be a bit sloppy first,” Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said. “There will be lines, unfortunately.”

Increased wait time is also expected at border crossings. Closer to home, Mexican and Canadian visitors will be able to drive to the U.S. for non-essential purposes for the first time in 20 months, and some cars were lining up at the northern border over the weekend.

Visit Rochester‘s Rachel Laber Pulvino spoke on-air with Global News Toronto about “Bordering On,” a new campaign targeted at Canadians from New York State’s third-largest city, just 90 minutes’ drive from Canada and three hours from Toronto.

In Minnesota, Gov. Walz proclaimed Nov. 8, 2021 as “Canadian Travelers Day.” To mark the re-opening of international land borders to vaccinated travelers, a press conference highlighted the importance of Canada to Minnesota’s economy, along with travel marketing efforts to welcome back the state’s neighbors to the north.

Good news came from the busy San Ysidro Port of Entry. The San Diego Union-Tribune reported, “Border reopens smoothly to cheers, hugs and tearful reunions.” Before the reopening, “On Sunday night, hundreds of cars formed lines stretching back miles into Tijuana waiting for the clock to strike midnight, as tourists planned to cross into San Diego during the first hour of eased restrictions. Many said they used that strategy to try to avoid the peak rush-hour traffic later Monday morning.” However, “the milestone moment came with shorter lines and less traffic than anticipated, leaving international land travelers pleasantly surprised.

Latest Recovery News From Industry Movers & Shakers

Tripadvisor: CEO Steve Kaufer will leave his position in 2022, it was announced this week. “Steve Kaufer had a good run,” writes Executive Editor Dennis Schaal at Skift, “transforming a company with a small office over a pizza shop in Massachusetts 20 years ago into a global, household name brand. The issue for Tripadvisor isn’t who will replace Kaufer, but what innovations will it take to revive the company.”

YouGov: A new survey reveals that about one in five global consumers believes that celebrity and influencer endorsements are effective in travel advertising (18%). In a list of 11 retail categories asked about in 17 global markets, travel came in sixth. Indians and Chinese are among those most impressed; Brits, French, Italians, Swedes and Americans among those least. Download the report here.

Hopper: Since the re-opening of U.S. borders was announced in late September, travel app Hopper has seen international flight searches to the U.S. spike 338% for trips after 8 November.

ADARA: Thanksgiving Travel Trends Report: The upcoming holiday is demonstrating the best performance yet. Hotel bookings are within 6% of 2019’s level. Trip length patterns are reverting to norm while some traveler segments are splurging like never before.

Download the US Hotel Bookings Report to find out key traveler trends for the upcoming holiday season based on data from Aug. 15 to Oct. 7 comparing the booking and searching pace to the same period in both 2020 and 2021.

STR and Tourism Economics upgraded the hotel industry forecast for 2022 during this week’s NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference. The experts are now forecasting U.S. hotel demand to reach “near full recovery” in 2022. Previously, they had forecast that demand would not fully recover until 2023.

Marriott International: The world’s largest hotel company reported improvement in the third quarter, as did CEOs from other large hotel chains. Group room revenues for the quarter were down 46% versus the same period in 2019. That’s a significant improvement over the second quarter 2021, which saw a decline of 76% versus the same period in 2019. Average daily rates for groups are up.

Hyatt: The company’s largest corporate accounts have grown by 50% since June and cancellations caused by delta variant in late summer leveled off and decreased in October.

Hilton: Leisure travel remained strong and business travel continued to pick up during the third quarter. Hilton experienced significant improvement in its results as compared to the same periods in 2020, due to an upward trend in travel and tourism. Certain hotels suspended operations at various times throughout 2020, but the majority of those hotels have reopened.

Airbnb: Following a busy summer, Airbnb’s revenue for the period ending Sept. 30 beat forecasts at $2.2 billion, up 67% from the same period in 2020 and surpassing 2019 third quarter revenue by 36%.

CEO Brian Chesky commented during the earnings call that, “Something bigger than a travel rebound is happening. The world is undergoing a revolution of how we live and work. For the first time ever, people can travel any time, anywhere, for any length, and live on Airbnb. This trend towards more flexibility will only accelerate.”

Pointing to work policies at some of the world’s largest companies such as PricewaterhouseCoopers, Procter & Gamble, and Amazon, Chesky said remote flexibility policies are evidence that this trend is here to stay.

On the international travel front, Airbnb has seen U.S. searches increase by 50% and bookings by foreign guests go up 44%. The most popular destinations are Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Orlando, and the South Florida Atlantic Coast for guests primarily traveling from London, Paris, Santiago, Toronto, and Vancouver.

AHLA: Considering the high price of gas, there’s a damper on road trips for Thanksgiving, according to a new national survey conducted by Morning Consult for the American Hotel & Lodging Association.

Expedia Group Media Solutions: The Q3 Travel Recovery Trend Report indicates that the industry is maintaining its momentum, search volumes are holding steady, and search windows are shortening. Holiday bookings are up by double digits and business travel is on the rise.

On a regional level, New York City leads the list for top 10 destinations by bookings from both global and North American-based markets. Starred cities indicate those new to the list this quarter.

Business travel demand in Q3 was up more than 40% quarter-over-quarter and up more than 110% compared to Q3 2020. Chicago and New York were among the top four booked destinations for business travelers globally .

Download the full report.

Recovery: Where We Are Now (Keep Those Fingers & Toes Crossed)

October 18, 2021 by Laurie Jo Miller Farr Leave a Comment

Are we getting closer to the time when the tourism industry can put Covid in the rear view mirror?

Road trip activity is surging ahead in October, reaching 5.7% above 2019 levels and a big jump of 21% over the same period last year, the Arrivalist Daily Travel Index shows. What’s more, the back-to-school period before the holidays is traditionally slower.

Cree Lawson, Founder & CEO, says this begs two questions: “Is travel caught up? Or surging ahead?”

Did you know? Arrivalist’s Daily Travel Index measures consumer road trips of 50 miles or more in all 50 U.S. states. The data is drawn from a panel of GPS signals representing road trips taken by car.

*Delta News Hub on flickr (Photo by John Paul Van Wert/Rank Studios 2018)*

In the first 15 days of October 2021, when there was one Monday holiday, TSA traveler throughput at all U.S. checkpoints (primarily airports) surpassed 2 million passengers on eight separate days. In the first 15 days of September 2021, when there was one Monday holiday, there were just two days that passenger traffic reached 2 million.

What are American travelers thinking, saying, feeling?

The experts report on very recent key findings via surveys:

“As the delta variant recedes, traveler confidence is improving.” — Longwoods International

58% now support welcoming visitors back into their communities, a gain of ten points in just two weeks
67% now feel safe travelling outside their communities, also up ten points in two weeks
70% now feel safe shopping and dining locally, up 12 points in two weeks

“This welcome rebound is just in time, making the outlook for the holiday travel season a pretty bright one.” — Destination Analysts

28% feel that the U.S. has a significant degree of normalcy, up from 24.7% the week of October 4
75.7% have strong feelings of excitement about travel, up from 64.4% the week of October
44.9% have at least tentative plans to hit the road this season, up 17 percentage points from 2020

You Can’t Know Too Much: Traveler Survey Findings for Fall & Ahead to the Holidays

October 5, 2021 by Laurie Jo Miller Farr Leave a Comment

Expedia Media Group Solutions

“We’re seeing positive signals continue into the fall.” A report just published follows the survey of 2,200 Americans conducted in collaboration with Morning Consult. Expedia Group Media Solutions finds the majority (58%) of respondents have travel plans during the fall with Millennials in leading (67%) compared to Gen Z (61%), Gen X (53%), and Boomers (53%).

Where are they heading? Hotel demand now through November indicated across Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Hotwire, Orbitz, and Travelocity tells us travelers are booking visits to:

Las Vegas
Orlando
New York City

Vacation rentals tell a different story:

Pigeon Forge, TN
Miramar and Rosemary Beach, FL
Gulf Shores, AL

To get more information, read the Fall Outlook report in this blog post.

Longwoods International

“As we enter the final quarter of the calendar year, we start taking a look at travel sentiment in regard to the upcoming holiday season in addition to our ongoing Key Sentiment Indicators. This is especially timely as the CDC has just announced their Holiday Gathering and Travel Guidelines.

Key Findings: Initial Outlook for Fall/Holiday Travel is Mixed

American Travel Sentiment indicates a mixed bag among travelers in regard to the upcoming fall/holiday travel season, with 41% saying they plan on the same amount of travel and 32% saying they are planning fewer trips during the same season last year.
On the positive side, 27% say they are actually planning more travel this fall/holiday season over last year. It will be interesting to see if the reported significant declines in the delta variant surge will help grow this number over the coming weeks.
Overall demand for travel form now into early 2022 is solid, as 88% of American travelers indicate plans to travel in the next six months, and other Key Sentiment Indicators appear to be holding steady.
Also, the news reports of the decline in the overall volume of delta variant cases in the U.S. is helping reverse or stabilize some the recent downward trends in resident/community sentiment in regards to welcoming back visitors to our communities, venturing outside our communities, and dining and shopping locally.

Get more survey finding details here.

Destination Analysts

“Americans’ travel marketability continues to gradually recover from the Delta-variant damage but travelers are feeling more financial stress lately and some uncertainty about vaccine protection. Meanwhile, the reopening of the U.S. border to vaccinated international visitors is generating excitement for travel. And with the rash of poorly-behaved passenger incidents on airplanes lately, the concept of a national no-fly list of trouble-making passengers enjoys wide consumer support.”

More findings:

Although our indices show that travel marketability continues to gradually improve from the dramatic drop it took during the height of the Delta variant spread, Americans are feeling more financially stressed lately.
A combination of the recent Delta-variant surge and seasonality, Americans have slowed their previous rabid demand for travel.
Some American travelers are not entirely confident in the protection their COVID vaccines are currently giving them, fueling a strong likelihood for boosters.
Politics in play in travel. This week, 18.7% of American travelers say there are places in the U.S. where they feel they wouldn’t be welcome as tourists. 50.6% of these travelers cite political differences as the reason.

Click here for the latest survey details from 1,200 American travelers collected September 29 – October 1.

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